You have got an idea. Maybe it came from personal experience, or maybe you spotted a market gap.
Either way, before you throw years of your life and hard-earned money into it, you need to answer a brutally honest question:
“Is this idea big enough to be worth dedicating years of my life?
Today, we kick off a mini-series where I’ll give you a blueprint to know whether the idea brewing in your head is:
Infatuation or true love.
This edition covers the first three critical tests:
✅ Market size
✅ Problem urgency
✅ Customer willingness to pay
Let’s go digging details:
1. How big is your market? (decoding TAM/SAM/SOM)
Forget investor pitch decks for a second. You need to know your numbers for yourself, so you don’t waste your energy on a tiny market.
Here’s the simple way to think about it:
TAM (Total Addressable Market):
If everyone in the world who could possibly use your product actually did, what would be the total revenue opportunity?
Example: If you’re making running shoes, then theoretically, everyone who runs is your TAM.SAM (Serviceable Available Market):
Of that total market, how much can you actually serve based on your geography, your target age group, your pricing, etc.?
Example: Maybe you're focusing only on runners in the northern part of India. That’s your SAM.SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market):
What portion of the SAM can you realistically capture in the next 1–2 years?
Example: You estimate you can sell shoes to 10,000 runners initially. That’s your SOM.Simple methodology to estimate TAM, SAM, SOM:
- Start with a population base (Google can give you the number).
- Apply filters like age, income level, location, usage behavior.
- Multiply by your product/service price to get a rough revenue number.
✅ If the SOM shows you can earn at least 3–5 crores/year in revenue within 2–3 years with basic efforts, it’s healthy.
✅ If you need the whole country to like you just to make 10 lakh a year—you have a problem.
2. Is the problem urgent or optional?
Painkiller vs Vitamin Test:
- Painkiller: Immediate need, people are actively looking for relief.
- Vitamin: Nice to have, but people can live without it.
🚑 Painkiller ideas get faster adoption and better willingness to pay.
Real World Example:
- Painkiller: Emergency grocery delivery in 10 minutes
- Vitamin: Apple iPhone or car delivery in 10 minutes
You know which one gets paid faster.
3. Are people already paying for a similar solution?
You don’t want to be the first one ever convincing people why they need something. You want to ride existing behavior.
✅ Check if people are already spending money to solve the problem today.
✅ It doesn’t have to be through tech even offline methods count.
Example:
- – You are building a fancy food subscription box.
- – Are people already paying for food subscriptions?
- – Are they buying packaged meal kits?
If yes, good sign. If no, you’ll need huge marketing budgets and a longer runway to create awareness.
Next Week Edition: We will cover Part 2 digging into standardization, recurring sales potential, and competition mapping to fortify your business model.
Until then, validate wisely, not wildly.
If you want a quick 1:1 session to map your TAM/SAM/SOM and reality-check your idea like a real founder – DM me. Mozartians are moving faster every day.
Happy Venture Building!
Abhishek Tiwari
